Top 6 Most Tradable Currency Pairs - Investopedia

H1 Backtest of ParallaxFX's BBStoch system

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are.
TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.
This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

Background

For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX!
I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.
This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.
I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

System Details

I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:

And now for the fun. Results!

As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker.
EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

A Note on Spread

As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).
However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades.
You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term.
Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

Time of Day

Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either.
On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate.
That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Moving stops up to breakeven

This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers.
Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.
One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?
Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right?
Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert.
I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.
The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops

Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it.
Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.
Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Correlated Trades

As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular.
Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.
This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).
Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.
Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).
Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.
One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.
EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much.
I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.
This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.
There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.
I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.
Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

What I will trade

Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!

Other Technical Details

Raw Data

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.)
I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes

For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:

Pairs

  1. AUD/CAD
  2. AUD/CHF
  3. AUD/JPY
  4. AUD/NZD
  5. AUD/USD
  6. CAD/CHF
  7. CAD/JPY
  8. CHF/JPY
  9. EUAUD
  10. EUCAD
  11. EUCHF
  12. EUGBP
  13. EUJPY
  14. EUNZD
  15. EUUSD
  16. GBP/AUD
  17. GBP/CAD
  18. GBP/CHF
  19. GBP/JPY
  20. GBP/NZD
  21. GBP/USD
  22. NZD/CAD
  23. NZD/CHF
  24. NZD/JPY
  25. NZD/USD
  26. USD/CAD
  27. USD/CHF
  28. USD/JPY

TL;DR

Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:

Demo Trading Results

Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc).
A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade.
I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!

Live Trading Results

I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
submitted by ForexBorex to Forex [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Part II
  • Letting stops breathe
  • When to change a stop
  • Entering and exiting winning positions
  • Risk:reward ratios
  • Risk-adjusted returns

Letting stops breathe

We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.

Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.

ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Reasons to change a stop

As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.

The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?

Entering and exiting winning positions

Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.

Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.

Entering positions with limit orders

That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.

Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.

Risk:reward and win ratios

Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.

A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.

Risk-adjusted returns

Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.

Sharpe ratio

The Sharpe ratio works like this:
  • It takes the average returns of your strategy;
  • It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
  • It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent.
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.

VAR

VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.

A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.

Coming up in part III

Available here
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Surge of New Forex Traders? Read this!

I've noticed that about 2,000 people have joined the Forex community in the recent weeks. Has anyone else noticed this? I suspect this is because of the lay offs due to the corona virus, and people are frantically looking for ways to supplement their incomes. While I'm glad that people are trying to better themselves and take control of their financial situations, I have to admit that the daily "newbie" questions are getting quite annoying. And it's not because there are new, inexperienced traders asking for help, but it's because the questions are more-less the same questions. I know there is a pinned "New Traders" section at the top of the thread, but it seems it isn't catching much traction.
But first, to the new traders I'd first like to say:

Welcome! This will be a tough journey, but it will pay in dividends (not literally).
A couple tips before we start:
FIRST, see the pinned New Traders section of Forex
SECOND, go to babypips and take their FREE courses where you will learn the basics. I never did because I'm an idiot, and it took me many years of trial and error to succeed in this game. Don't be a lemon like me, go to babypips.
Now my basics;
Always have at least a 1:2 Risk:Reward. Simply put, risk at least $1 for $2.
Always set a stop loss and take profit.
In the beginning, I find it best to give new traders a black or white, go-or-no-go trading strategy. Trade mechanically. While discretionary trading is profitable, you need years of experience and time in the charts to be good at it. It could be something like, "I only trade low volatility break outs on the 4hr. Any candle below x ATR and I will enter via stop order at the high/low of that candle. My sl will be at the high/low of the entry candle, and I will look to make at least 2 reward on that trade. I will risk 1% per trade, even on demo, and I will trade in the direction of a 10 period moving average" This is a VERY crude strategy, one I just pulled out of my ass, so don't go using it and blowing your accounts!
I recommend starting with 1 pair in the beginning, at MOST 3. And I recommend not swapping into different pairs. Keep those 1-3 pairs.
Once babypips is completed, demo trade. Put time in the charts and develop a strategy (mechanically, preferably). Your strategy could be as complex or as simple as you like. Simplicity is genius in my opinion, but you do you. I'm not trying to sound like an ass, but everything you really needed to learn you learned from babypips.
With that said, DO NOT pay for courses from ANYONE. They will often know the same as you, if not less. In my opinion to be really great in this game you don't need a lot of information., and capitalize on every opportunity. You just need to be really good at one style and max that the hell out. For instance, being really good at low volatility breakouts, and having a system based off that. No amount of schooling (high school, college, or courses via Forex gurus) will make you successful. It's one thing to know a strategy, but to implement it in real time with real consequences is daunting. The only way to conquer this is to simply do it. Trade.
Trade with an amount of money you can emotionally and financially afford to lose! I would even recommend starting a live account with $50 and only trading micro lots (0.01) until you become comfortable and your strategy proves successful. This is AFTER demo trading your strategy.
Master yourself before you master the markets. Work out. Feed your brain. Get enough sleep. The money you make or lose isn't worth your health.
Psychology. In my opinion the best psychology you can have while trading is a form of stoicism. You've placed your trade based off your strategy, you managed your trade based off your strategy, and you risked an amount you've told yourself you were comfortable losing with an account you told yourself you were comfortable blowing, so what's the worry? Why the second guessing? Everyone's heard that story, right? Where a man goes to a successful "guru" and says he wants to be successful. The guru says, "Ok. Show up at the beach this time tomorrow." The man shows up at the beach in a suit and tie, ready for success! The guru tells him to get in the water. Once in, the guru holds the mans head under the water, drowning him. At the last second the guru lets him up and says, "once you want success as much you wanted to breathe, you'll be successful. That's what you need to be like. You need to be willing to do what is necessary and put in the work. It's not easy. You're going to lose money, maybe even blow accounts. You may struggle for years without a return, or even lose money over that time. How bad do you want it success, though? And are you willing to drown to attain it?
Best of luck new traders!
Experienced traders, please feel free to add things or tell me I'm a goof in the comments.
submitted by SandfordKing to Forex [link] [comments]

Swing trading the dailies

Hey everyone! New to the subreddit, I've been lurking for a couple of weeks and picking up some good stuff, so thank you all for your contributions.
A little background on me. I've been trading on and off for over 20 years. Made and lost several hundred thousand dollars while trading futures and equity options. I've never really gotten into forex before other than to do a little research and testing. I personally don't like to take pure directional bets so with futures I traded spreads and with options I was a premium seller.
But I'm giving it a try now and my first month (January) I'm up 6% on my demo account. So I thought I'd start a fresh account for February and share how things go. I've set up a myfxbook too if you're interested. If things go well I'll probably go live in March or April with a small account.
As indicated in the title I'm swing trading the daily charts, mostly holding trades for a few days although backtesting there are multi-week trends that I may have caught too, although I put much stock in backtesting.
For trade entries I keep things very simple with just Support/Resistance and using Heikin Ashi to identify strength or weakness. I'll then check IG and Oanda open positions to confirm I'm taking a position opposite most retail traders.
For TP I'm experimenting with multiples of ATR to take up to 2/3's off and allowing the remainder to ride with a trailing stop.
For initial SL I've been using the high/low of the previous bar but I'm also experimenting with ATR there too since I've noticed that my trades tend to either go quickly right or quickly wrong and when they go wrong they don't come back and when they go right they don't retrace back to entry, so a tighter SL may be wise.
Finally, I'm risking 1% of my account per trade.
Tomorrow I'll post the pairs that I'll be looking to get into Monday.
I think that's about it. If you have any questions or suggestions please feel free!
submitted by IndustrialFX to Forex [link] [comments]

Stuck after 2 years. Any suggestions?

Hello everyone, I don't tend to write on Reddit but I'm getting frustrated. I will try to get straight to the point and avoid useless information.
What do you suggest me to do? or What course do you suggest me to take?
I first entered the Forex world aprox 2 years ago, but I started to take it seriously 1 year ago and I can't get profitable, most of the times I'm at breakeven and sometimes I lose more than I win, and i'm beginning to lose hope.
My strategy is a mix of "Akil stokes" and "Jason graystone" style mixed with what I learned from Navin Prythiany Price action and 4CB courses (payed courses).
I always take only trend trades for now, I first look at what we call "the big boy timeframe (higher timeframe)" and stablish the trend, then I go down a timeframe to meassure the momentum of the pullback to get in. After I get the pullback I have different entry techniques, like advance pattern formations, reactions on support/resistance (Navin style), or the simple "higher high higher close" that Graystone use.
Still my trading is bad. Can't get profitable and I dont know what to do next, I dont know how to break that barrier. I dont trade with emotions, I dont move my Stop or take profit UNLESS my rules allow me, I dont get out early, and dont hold longer that I should, I risk 2% of capital per trade (calculated before each trade), I dont revenge trade, I dont hold on weekends, I dont trade pairs with news incomming, etc etc...
I dont use indicators either, just the ATR to set my stop loss.
I would really love some suggestions, I began this month to post all my trades on Tradingview if some of you want to take a look and see how my style is (not sure if its allowed to post other sites in here).
Thank you beforehand, I really don't want to give up after all the time I've spend on this...
submitted by Koutta to Forex [link] [comments]

Top 10 Forex Trading Strategies and Recommendations that work in 2018

Forex trading is completely bounded by the economy of the currency pair. Forex trading is not a kind of business where you can take spontaneous decisions to run your business. It needs a thoughtful and strategic process with the emotional discipline to make any move in Forex trading. It is always said that a Forex trader must strive to develop his/her own trading strategy or try a strategy that has proven itself in past. Best Forex trading strategy for 2018 can develop after multifaceted analysis of currency pairs and economy news.
1. Trading is an Art, not a Rocket Science: You must remember that trading is an art, not a rocket science. No one can assure you for 100% accurate movement of any currency. Therefore, no rule in trading is ever absolute. You have to learn Art of trading. How the market reacts to the economic news? And how technical indicators work with those data?
2. Emotional Discipline: Everyone knows about emotional discipline, but no one controls their emotions while trading which becomes a reason for the loss of trading. Emotional discipline keeps you on the track of successful trader. If you are trading with a strategic process and don’t have the emotional discipline you can lose your money on trading and we suggest you stop wasting time in trading. You can do more interesting in your life.
3. Don’t Get Greedy: Forex trading is highly fluctuating trading system. You are making a good profit 1 min ago and next min you are having a loss. If you’re in profit and you are making good money with respect to your investment. Then don’t get greedy into making more profit. Just close the trade and have fun with your profit.
4. Risk Management: Most of the people trade without risk management and wipe out their account. If you want to be a successful trader don’t forget to put proper risk to management in your trades. Trading is a kind of business if you are not able to lose money that you are investing. Please don’t put any trade in stocks, currency market.
5. RSI (Relative Strength Index) Indicator: As you know it is a momentum indicator. It is used to understand the movement of the market. It also helps us to learn the trend of the market in particular time frame. But why we are suggesting to others to use in your toolkit. We know that market is run by investors and all investors need something to predict short terms and long-term movement of the market to make a good amount of profit. That’s why they use tools used by a majority of traders and RSI is one of the tools which is used by the majority.
6. ATR (Average True Range): Most of the traders lose money in Forex trading not because they are trading against the trend, they lose money because they don’t what is stop loss and take profit they have to put while trading and ATR will help you to use a proper stop loss on your all trade so you can increase the number of profitable trade in your portfolio.
7. Stochastic Oscillator Every trader must keep this tool in his/her toolkit. This tool will let you know about get-in and get-out price of your trade. If you are following the signals provided by this tool, you may lose most of your trades with good profit. It shows the overbought and oversold price of any currency, commodity, and stock. This range – from 0 to 100 – will remain constant, no matter how quickly or slowly a security advances or declines. Considering the most traditional settings for the oscillator, 20 are typically considered the oversold threshold and 80 are considered the overbought threshold. However, the levels are adjustable to fit security characteristics and analytical needs. Readings above 80 indicate a security is trading near the top of its high-low range; readings below 20 indicate the security is trading near the bottom of its high-low range.
8. Simple Moving Average: The thing to remember about SMA is it helps you to determine the upcoming trend. It helps you to know upcoming the bullish trend and bearish trends in your currency trading. Two popular trading patterns that use simple moving averages include the death cross and a golden cross. A death cross occurs when the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. This is considered a bearish signal that further losses are in store. The golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average breaks above a long-term moving average. Reinforced by high trading volumes, this can signal further gains are in store.
9. A risk to Reward Ratio: Before entering every trade, you must know your pain threshold. You need to figure out what the worst-case scenario is and place your stop based on a monetary or technical level. Every trade, no matter how certain you are of its outcome, is an educated guess. Nothing is certain in trading. Reward, on the other hand, is unknown. When a currency moves, the move can be huge or small. Always trade in 1:2 risks to reward ratio. So if you lose two trade you, your one profit trade can recover your loss and put you in no loss- no profit situation.
10. Never Risk more than 5\% of your investment: If you are a trader with the low budget in rang $100-$1000. Never put more than %5 of your total amount of investment. And if you have budget more than $1000 than please don’t get greedy and don’t put more than 2% on risk.
submitted by sannidhyammf to u/sannidhyammf [link] [comments]

Top Forex Trading tips and Strategies- 2018

Forex trading is completely bounded by the economy of the currency pair. Forex trading is not a kind of business where you can take spontaneous decisions to run your business. It needs a thoughtful and strategic process with the emotional discipline to make any move in Forex trading. It is always said that a Forex trader must strive to develop his/her own trading strategy or try a strategy that has proven itself in past. Best Forex trading tips and strategies for 2018 can develop after multifaceted analysis of currency pairs and economy news. Here are some forex currency trading tips that will work in 2018:
1. Trading is an Art, not a Rocket Science:
You must remember that trading is an art, not a rocket science. No one can assure you for 100% accurate movement of any currency. Therefore, no rule in trading is ever absolute. You have to learn Art of trading. How the market reacts to the economic news? And how technical indicators work with those data?
2. Emotional Discipline:
Everyone knows about emotional discipline, but no one controls their emotions while trading which becomes a reason for the loss of trading. Emotional discipline keeps you on the track of successful trader. If you are trading with a strategic process and don’t have the emotional discipline you can lose your money on trading and we suggest you stop wasting time in trading. You can do more interesting in your life.
3. Don’t Get Greedy:
Forex trading is highly fluctuating trading system. You are making a good profit 1 min ago and next min you are having a loss. If you’re in profit and you are making good money with respect to your investment. Then don’t get greedy into making more profit. Just close the trade and have fun with your profit.
4. Risk Management:
Most of the people trade without risk management and wipe out their account. If you want to be a successful trader don’t forget to put proper risk to management in your trades. Trading is a kind of business if you are not able to lose money that you are investing. Please don’t put any trade in stocks, currency market.
5. RSI (Relative Strength Index) Indicator:
As you know it is a momentum indicator. It is used to understand the movement of the market. It also helps us to learn the trend of the market in particular time frame. But why we are suggesting to others to use in your toolkit. We know that market is run by investors and all investors need something to predict short terms and long-term movement of the market to make a good amount of profit. That’s why they use tools used by a majority of traders and RSI is one of the tools which is used by the majority.
6. ATR (Average True Range):
Most of the traders lose money in Forex trading not because they are trading against the trend, they lose money because they don’t what is stop loss and take profit they have to put while trading and ATR will help you to use a proper stop loss on your all trade so you can increase the number of profitable trade in your portfolio.
7. Stochastic Oscillator
Every trader must keep this tool in his/her toolkit. This tool will let you know about get-in and get-out price of your trade. If you are following the signals provided by this tool, you may lose most of your trades with good profit. It shows the overbought and oversold price of any currency, commodity, and stock. This range – from 0 to 100 – will remain constant, no matter how quickly or slowly a security advances or declines. Considering the most traditional settings for the oscillator, 20 are typically considered the oversold threshold and 80 are considered the overbought threshold. However, the levels are adjustable to fit security characteristics and analytical needs. Readings above 80 indicate a security is trading near the top of its high-low range; readings below 20 indicate the security is trading near the bottom of its high-low range.
8. Simple Moving Average:
The thing to remember about SMA is it helps you to determine the upcoming trend. It helps you to know upcoming the bullish trend and bearish trends in your currency trading.
Two popular trading patterns that use simple moving averages include the death cross and a golden cross. A death cross occurs when the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. This is considered a bearish signal that further losses are in store. The golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average breaks above a long-term moving average. Reinforced by high trading volumes, this can signal further gains are in store.
9. A risk to Reward Ratio:
Before entering every trade, you must know your pain threshold. You need to figure out what the worst-case scenario is and place your stop based on a monetary or technical level. Every trade, no matter how certain you are of its outcome, is an educated guess. Nothing is certain in trading. Reward, on the other hand, is unknown. When a currency moves, the move can be huge or small. Always trade in 1:2 risks to reward ratio. So if you lose two trade you, your one profit trade can recover your loss and put you in no loss- no profit situation.
10. Never Risk more than 5\% of your investment:
If you are a trader with the low budget in rang $100-$1000. Never put more than %5 of your total amount of investment. And if you have budget more than $1000 than please don’t get greedy and don’t put more than 2% on risk.
If you remember this rules and learn to use above mention tools properly. Definitely, you can make a good amount of money from your trades, without wiping out your account. Trading is subject to market risk. You can lose all money, so please trade safely and don’t get emotional.
submitted by sannidhyammf to u/sannidhyammf [link] [comments]

How I use Volatility to my advantage (UK US open, late US etc)

[Only applies to M30 and lower]
What is volatility?
Volatility is the degree of variation in price of a given asset on a defined timeframe. When price moves quickly, market volatility increases. When price consolidates, market volatility decreases (simple definition). It is like the speedometer in our cars.
I usually add an Average True Range (ATR) on my charts to gauge approximately market volatility or market nervousness. However, it is not necessary, when you look at a chart you are able to tell if price is spiking, trending or consolidating.
Volatility is part of any strategy. It gives an expectancy toward future price action. In general, when market volatility is low, we expect significant support and resistance levels to hold price in a range. And when market volatility is high, we expect price to break these levels.
Volatility patterns
Fortunately, in the Forex market, daily volatility is predictable. We tend to see volatility peaks around major markets openings, which are the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and the Japanese Exchange. At the late hours of these markets, volatility tends to decrease.
These fundamental patterns are the most exploitable patterns in the Forex market. Yes, at least more exploitable than deceitful technical signals you are looking for. And they happen almost every day. However, there are exceptions. For example, we do not expect volatility peak to happen when countries of these big markets are on bank holiday.
EURUSD hourly volatility
The chart above shows the 4-weeks hourly volatility for the EUUSD pair. It is the average in pip of the difference between the highest and the lowest price of each hour of the day, over four weeks. Each bar represents the average in hourly range over four weeks.
There are two major peaks corresponding to the LSE and the NYSE openings.
Since the EUUSD is the most traded pair, we consider its volatility as "market volatility". In fact, the hourly volatility chart of the other pairs gives approximately the same pattern.
USDCAD hourly volatility
These charts were taken in May 2016. Take a look at Mataf.net’s volatility tool and type four (for four weeks) in the entry box. You will see approximately this same pattern in hourly volatility, with the two major peaks (UK and US opens) and decreasing volatility starting from the mid-US session. (Currently the pattern is disturbed by the brexit monster volatility, it will become clear again within few weeks)
We also have decreased volatility during the Asian session when there is no major news release coming from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) or the Bank Of Japan (BOJ).
Asian sessions
These charts tell us market volatility is predictable. This leads us to define two principles:
First Principle: Around major markets openings (active time), market volatility tends to surge. We expect to see range breakouts, spikes or rallies. It is the best time to trade breakouts i.e., buying new highs and selling new lows.
Second Principle: During the late hours of major markets sessions and when major markets are closed (quiet time), market volatility tends to decrease considerably. We expect to see trading range or congestion in price action. It is the best time to range-trade i.e., buying the lows and selling the highs.
principles
Any trading strategy or system has to adapt to these variations in volatility to perform over time. If you are struggling with a particular strategy, maybe you are ignoring these changes in volatility.
How volatility patterns can help in improving your trading?
One cannot apply a strategy any time and expect to be profitable. When we simulate an automated and intraday trading system over three months without time filtering, we will notice the system is only profitable at certain hours of the day. This simply reflects intraday volatility variations.
You have to determine if your trading strategy is a trend following method or a range trading one.
If your strategy is a trend following approach, you will want to only trade around major markets openings to maximize profits. Otherwise, you will tend to give back profits as price slows down in the mid-session and market volatility decrease.
If your strategy is a range trading or reversal approach, you will want to only trade during quiet market time and avoid trading around market openings or around news releases.
Less trades maximize profits. Most of my trading sessions last less than one hour.
I made a portable document of this.
submitted by alm_hd to Forex [link] [comments]

Which forex pairs move the most - pairs to trade for FAST ... Which Are The Best Forex Pairs To Trade? 8 Major Forex Currency Pairs - Top 8 Most Profitable Currency Pairs The Top 3 Forex Pairs to Trade - YouTube Top most traded currency pairs  Best Forex Currency Pair to Trade The Best Pairs To Trade In Forex Which Are The Best Forex Pairs To Trade? - YouTube

Indices Get top insights on the most traded stock indices and ... Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.29% ... Currency Pairs in Forex – Prominent Types. The major types of these currency pair types are Major, Minor, and Exotic Pairs. 1. Major Pairs. The currency pairs that are the most traded ones globally are termed as the major currency pairs. They are known for their huge liquidity and lowest spreads. Listed below are some of them: – USD/EUR (US ... Many currency pairs can be traded in the forex trading system but the most traded and profitable currency pairs are listed below. We will discuss only the six best currency pairs in this article that are given below: – USD to EUR; USD to JPY; USD to CAD; GBP to USD; USD to CHF; AUD to USD; USD to EUR. USD to EUR is the most traded currency pair for profitable trade in the world. USD is the ... The most traded currency pairs are listed below. They represent some of the world’s largest economies and are traded in high volumes. Higher volumes tend to lead to smaller spreads. Best forex pairs to trade & most predictable currency pairs to trade in 2020. Here we explain which are the most popular traded currency pairs, when is best to trade and why these pairs are so popular. More than 50% of trades in Forex market somehow involve the US dollar. In fact, EURUSD is the most traded currency pair in the world that takes about 30% of the total multi-billion dollar Forex turnover. And it is not surprising, since the economies of the US and the European Union are the largest ones. But before you jump in head first to the fast-paced world of forex, you'll need to know the currency pairs that trade trade most often. Here's a look at six of the most tradable currency pairs in ...

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Which forex pairs move the most - pairs to trade for FAST ...

In this video Learn about Top most traded currency pairs and Best Forex Currency Pair to Trade. Everything about Types of Currency Pairs, MAJORS Currency Pairs, CROSS Currency Pairs, MINOR ... Pick the Most Profitable Forex Pairs to Trade Daily - Duration: 28:18. Adam Khoo 100,649 views. 28:18 . Best FX Trading Strategies (THE Top Strategy for Forex Trading) - Duration: 32:00. No ... Discover which are the best Forex pairs to trade for trend and range markets. 👇 SUBSCRIBE TO RAYNER'S YOUTUBE CHANNEL NOW 👇 https://www.youtube.com/subscript... 💰💰Which #forex pairs move the most - pairs to trade for FAST money and FAST pips. The most volatile Forex pairs can move on average for more than 400 points ... Get 14 days for free in our live trade room: https://traderoomplus.com/s/yttrial We're often asked, 'What are the best Forex pairs to trade and why?' In thi... The Best Pairs To Trade In Forex The secret to be a successful trader is to know what pairs to trade. Pick the Most Profitable Forex Pairs to Trade Daily Exotics move well and the spread ... 8 Major Forex Currency Pairs - Top 8 Most Profitable Currency Pairs Forex Currency is always traded in pairs, one pair being traded against another. The pairs are set in a certain format which is ...

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